Trend Analysis and GARCH Model for COVID-19 National Weekly Confirmed Cases in Nigeria for Abuja and Lagos State

The trend analysis and GARCH model for COVID-19 pandemic spread between FCT/Lagos the National Weekly confirmed cases were carried out using statistical software Minitab17 Gretl. Four models behavior considered, which are linear, quadratic, cubic quartic trends with respect to R-square value, Adjusted Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) p-value estimated coefficients p-values. In addition, GARCH(0,1),GARCH(1,0) GARCH(1,1) built separately both on Nigeria cases; determine has best fit predicting weekly in those areas. four common information criteria was used selected model, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Schwarz-Bayesian (BIC), Hannan-Quinn (HQC) Likelihood (LKH).This study established quadratic GARCH(1,0) as that describes data sets FCT. Hence, can be forecasts these